Let's think about this.

So now that everything is passed and done, there are still people who are unhappy about this. Hurt California economically? Too insignificant to make change? You don't say? That's not the main purpose why this bill was drafted, we as Californians would like to set the perfect example as the public policy is now in the reviewing stages. Since this is a collective good, immediate results will not be seen. As your sitting by the pool, you won't suddenly realize, "Hrm, the trend in the past five years has been cooler and the skies have gotten bluer! Global Warming must be going away! :D" This guy seems to have a different idea about how we'll be sitting by our pools 50 years from now.

Scroll down to read this article that has obviously done his research.

Kyoto Treaty Means a Loss of Liberty

Saturday, November 11, 2006

By Al Kelsch

So now California has its very own greenhouse gas emissions reduction bill. The ultimate objective of AB 32, signed by Governor Schwarzenneger, is to put California approximately in compliance with the 1992 Kyoto International Treaty. That would make California the third entity in the world in compliance, since 13 of the 15 signatories are not in compliance. The U.S. Senate voted 99-0 in 1999 not to be bound by the Kyoto Treaty and President Bush affirmed the intention of the United States not to sign the treaty.

The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 prescribes a sequence of events designed to record, regulate, and reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions under the executive power of the State Air Resources Board. First step is to adopt a plan by Jan. 1, 2008, requiring sources of greenhouse gas to monitor and report their emissions to the ARB. From this information, the ARB is to declare an emissions level for 1990, which is to be used as a baseline in setting and monitoring the reduction that is mandated by AB 32. "By January 1, 2008, the state board (ARB) shall ... determine what the statewide greenhouse gas emissions level was in 1990," is the language of the bill. AB 32 then prescribes that by 2020, the level of greenhouse emissions for California must be 20 percent below the emissions level in 1990. Here is the actual sequence. Adopt some early action measures starting July 2007; issue reporting rules and who must report by Jan. 2008, layout the overall plan by Jan. 2009, adopt the overall plan by Jan. 2011. That ARB will have total control over emissions in California including any and all emitters. Soviet Central Planning never had such a mandate.

What does this mean for the citizen? Since overall emissions as mandated by AB 32 must be reduced, and since one-third of all emissions come from motor vehicles, it follows that emission rules and their enforcement will involve every household. The plan is destined to affect individual households through the control of auto and other emissions such as those from barbecues and fireplaces. There already exists a law to reduce vehicle emissions in California (AB 1493, adopted in 2002), which will now fall under the overall coordinating enforcement power of the ARB. Actually, at least four bureaucracies in California will come under the umbrella authority of the ARB in the area of emissions.

Every voter's question should be, is this good public policy and will it work?

First of all, AB 32 is largely symbolic. This is as much as admitted in the language of the law. "National and international actions are necessary to fully address the issue of global warming," is the exact language found in the introduction to the bill. However, action taken by California to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will have far-reaching effects by encouraging other states, the federal government, and other countries to act.

Secondly, Kyoto itself, if fully implemented, will have only a miniscule effect on global temperatures; California's version even less so. Since the atmosphere is obviously a shared resource, an action by a single entity cannot definitively affect the overall atmosphere of the earth. The overall effect on temperature of the Kyoto treaty, assuming all of the industrialized and nearly-industrialized nations adhere to the treaty, would be to lower the earth's temperature in 2100 by just 0.11 to 0.21 degrees C. This is reported by Thomas Wigley in Geophysical Research Letters.

Now extrapolate that to the effect produced by California under the AB 32 scenario. The U.S. economy as estimated by the World Bank represents 28 percent of the total economic activity of the world. Since by population, California is 10 percent of the U.S. total, California would represent 2.8 percent of the world's economic activity. By extrapolation, based on economic activity, California's AB 32 would effect the rise in overall earth temperature by just .0031 to .006 degrees C by the year 2100! These are levels that can only be detected by state-of-the-art measuring equipment. So lets see, California residents get a new nanny-state bureaucracy with near-dictatorial powers to control our autos and our fireplaces, a permanent drain on the fiscally-challenged California state budget, a probable new tax on miles driven, and in return we get a decrease in the rise in the overall temperature of the earth by 0.0031 degrees in 2100! A steep price indeed for the obvious loss of liberty.

Al Kelsch is a Hollister resident who writes a weekly column for the Free Lance that appears on Saturdays. He can be reached at oibl@yahoo.com

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